This year’s U.S. presidential election has been called one of the biggest political upsets in history. Just weeks ago, Hillary Clinton seemed headed for a big win.
Brian J Gaines
Professor
Additional Campus Affiliations
Biography
Brian J. Gaines is a professor at the University of Illinois, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. He received a BA with honors from the University of British Columbia and AM and PhD degrees from Stanford University, where he was also the playing president of the ice hockey club. Most of his research deals with elections, electoral rules, and public opinion. With Wendy Cho and Jake Bowers, he co-edited the Political Methodologist from 2010-2013. From 2011 to 2015, he was the editor of American Politics Research. Between 2005 and 2007, he completed marathons on all seven continents.
Education
- BA (honours): UBC, 1988
- AM: Stanford, 1989
- PhD: Stanford, 1995
Selected Publications
Journal Articles
Gaines, Brian J, Mark Goodwin, Stephen Holden Bates, and Gisela Sin A Bouncy House? UK Select Committee Newsworthiness, 2005–18 The Journal of Legislative Studies 25 3 2019, p. 409-33.
Evans, Jillian, and Brian J. Gaines The Myth of the Bipartisan National Popular Vote Plan The Forum 17 2 2019, p. 345-373.
Gaines, Brian J Flat Is Fair: American Public Opinion on Taxes and the Myth of Egalitarianism The Independent Review 22 1 2017, p. 93-104.
Burden, Barry C, and Brian J. Gaines Absentee and Early Voting: Weighing the Costs of Convenience Election Law Journal 14 1 2015, p. 32-37.
Gaines, Brian J, and Rein Taagepera More on Measuring Two-Party Competition Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 24 3 2014, p. 386-392.
Gaines, Brian J, and Rein Taagepera How To Operationalize Two-Party Competition Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 23 4 2013, p. 387-404.
Gaines, Brian J, Timothy P. Nokken, and Collin Groebe Is Four Twice as Nice as Two? A Natural Experiment on the Electoral Effects of Legislative Term Length State Politics and Policy Quarterly 12 1 2012, p. 43-57.
Gaines, Brian J, and James H. Kuklinski Experimental Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Related to Self-Selection American Journal of Political Science 55 3 2011, p. 724-736.
Gaines, Brian J, and Jeffery A. Jenkins Apportionment Matters: Fair Representation in the House and Electoral College Perspectives on Politics 7 4 2009, p. 847-855.
Dyck, Joshua J, Brian J. Gaines, and Daron R. Shaw The Effect of Local Political Context on How Americans Vote American Politics Research 37 6 2009, p. 216-231.
Gaines, Brian J, and Jeffery J. Mondak Typing Together? Clustering of Ideological Types in Online Social Networks Journal of Information Technology and Politics 6 3-4 2009, p. 216-231.
Gaines, Brian J, James H. Kuklinski, Paul J. Quirk, Buddy Peyton, and Jay Verkuilen Interpreting Iraq: Partisanship and the Meaning of Facts Journal of Politics 69 4 2007, p. 957-974.
Cho, Wendy K. Tam, and Brian J. Gaines Breaking the (Benford) Law: Statistical Fraud Detection and Campaign Finance The American Statistician 61 3 2007, p. 218-223.
Gaines, Brian J, James H. Kuklinski, and Paul J. Quirk The Logic of the Survey Experiment Reexamined Political Analysis 15 1 2007, p. 1-20.
Gaines, Brian J, and Wendy K. Tam Cho On California’s 1920 Alien Land Law: The Psychology and Economics of Racial Discrimination State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4 3 2004, p. 271-293.
Gaines, Brian J, and Christophe Crombez Another Look at Connections Across German Elections Journal of Theoretical Politics 16 3 2004, p. 289-319.
Cho, Wendy K. Tam, and Brian J. Gaines Reassessing the Study of Split-Ticket Voting American Journal of Political Science 48 1 2004, p. 152-171.
Book Contributions
Gaines, Brian J, and James H. Kuklinski A Possible Next Frontier in Political Communication Research: Merging the Old with the New Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media edited by
Robert Shapiro, edited by
Lawrence Jacobs. A Possible Next Frontier in Political Communication Research: Merging the Old with the New Edited by
Robert Shapiro, Edited by
Lawrence Jacobs, Oxford Oxford University Press 2011, p. 43-58.
Gaines, Brian J, and James H. Kuklinski Treatment Effects Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science edited by
James Druckman, edited by
Donald Green, edited by
James Kuklinski, edited by
Arthur Lupia. Treatment Effects Edited by
James Druckman, Edited by
Donald Green, Edited by
James Kuklinski, Edited by
Arthur Lupia, Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 2011, p. 445-458.
Gaines, Brian J Compact Risk: Some Downsides to Establishing National Plurality Presidential Elections Electoral College Reform: Challenges and Possibilities edited by
Gary Bugh. Compact Risk: Some Downsides to Establishing National Plurality Presidential Elections Edited by
Gary Bugh, Farnham Ashgate 2010, p. 113-126.
Gaines, Brian J Does the United Kingdom Obey Duverger's Law? Duverger's Law of Plurality Voting: The Logic of Party Competition in Canada, India, the United Kingdom and the United States edited by
Bernard Grofman, edited by
Shaun Bowler, edited by
Andre Blais. Does the United Kingdom Obey Duverger's Law? Edited by
Bernard Grofman, Edited by
Shaun Bowler, Edited by
Andre Blais, New York, NY Springer 2009, p. 115-134.
Gaines, Brian J, and Peter F. Nardulli International Perspectives on Democracy in the Twenty-First Century International Perspectives on Contemporary Democracy International Perspectives on Democracy in the Twenty-First Century Champaign, IL University of Illinois Press 2008, p. 1-10.
Gaines, Brian J, and Brian D. Roberts Gubernatorial Incapacity and Succession Provisions The Book of the States edited by
Keon Chi. Gubernatorial Incapacity and Succession Provisions Edited by
Keon Chi, Lexington, KY Council of State Governments 2005, p. 208-214.
Newspaper Articles
Gaines, Brian J Chicago Tribune Independent Map Amendment Would Not Harm Racial Representation 2016.
Gaines, Brian J Illinois Must Draft Orderly Succession Rules State Journal-Register Springfield 2015.
Gaines, Brian J Crain's Chicago Business Why Illinois (still) needs redistricting reform Chicago 2014.
Gaines, Brian J The Case of the Vanishing Millionaire's Tax Chicago Sun Times 2014.
Gaines, Brian J A Few Pointers on Political Polls Chicago Sun Times 2012.
Gaines, Brian J Marathons More than Runs, They’re Glue that Binds Us News Gazette Champaign-Urbana 2012, sec. A:4.
Gaines, Brian J, and R. Douglas Rivers Wall Street Journal What’s a ‘Fair’ Tax for the Mega Millionaires? 2012, sec. A:13.
Gaines, Brian J National Popular Vote Compact Has Serious Flaws San Jose Mercury News 2011, sec. A:9.
Gaines, Brian J, and James H. Kuklinski Transparent Redistricting Still Possible Daily Herald Chicago 2010.
Magazine Articles
Gaines, Brian J, and James H. Kuklinski To Gerrymander or Not? What Kind of Electoral Districts Does the Public Want? Illinois Issues 2010, p. 30-33.
Gaines, Brian J, and Brianna K. Lawrence No Marks for Civility: Nastiness is Part of Politics, Past and Present Illinois Issues 2008, p. 28-30.
Gaines, Brian J Keep Them Separated? Illinois Issues 2008, p. 19-21.
Gaines, Brian J Elect, Indict, Repeat: Will Democracy, Illinois Style, Every Change? Illinois Issues 2007, p. 24-26.
Gaines, Brian J Gubernatorial Incapacity: A Review of Succession Provisions Spectrum: The Journal of State Government 2005, p. 699-701.
Website Articles
Gaines, Brian J, and Gisela Sin Can the Anti-Pelosi Faction Change the US House? History Lessons for House Democrats Vox 2018.
Gaines, Brian J, Mark Goodwin, Stephen Holden Bates, and Gisela Sin When Select Committees Speak, Do Newspapers Listen? Democratic Audit 2019.
