How could so many be so wrong in predicting Trump vs. Clinton?

Political scientist weighs in on one of the nation's greatest political upsets

Date

11/11/16
Many methods and assumptions of polling and forecasting will be open to examination in the wake of the presidential election, says University of Illinois political science professor Brian Gaines.

This year’s U.S. presidential election has been called one of the biggest political upsets in history. Just weeks ago, Hillary Clinton seemed headed for a big win. And though the race tightened in the lead-up to November 8, almost every respected election forecast had her as a strong favorite over Donald Trump. Betting markets were predicting Clinton as well. And so was Illinois political scientist Brian Gaines, an expert on polling and public opinion. Gaines spoke with News Bureau social sciences editor Craig Chamberlain about how the polls largely failed to predict Trump’s victory and the challenges of getting it right.

Read Full Article

Related People